Annuities

Those with fixed incomes or living on their retirement savings are often looking for a safe, low risk place to invest their money. They will often turn to annuities, which are sold through insurance companies. Basically, an annuity is a contract between you and the insurance company that provided for tax-deferred earnings.

There are a number of insurance guarantees that come with annuities, including the option to “annuitize,” or turn the principal into a lifetime stream of income. However, the fees are often quite high, and the earnings are taxed as ordinary income, not long-term capital gain.

The FDIC does not insure annuities, even if they are sold through a bank. The safety of your principal depends on the financial strength of the annuity provider. If the company fails, you might have $100,000 of coverage by your state’s guaranty association. But these associations operate under state law, and vary on what they cover and how much they pay.

Fixed-rate annuities

With a fixed-rate annuity, you pay the insurance company a certain amount of money. The insurance company then guarantees you a certain periodic payment for the life of the annuity. This is often a way to se up a lifetime stream of income. The insurance company’s goal is to invest your deposit and make more money than they have promised to pay you.

There are often higher interest rates on annuities than on CDs. But fixed-rate doesn’t mean the same thing for annuities as it does for a CD. With a CD, the rate is fixed for the full term of the CD. Fixed-rate annuities do not have a maturity date. The rate is usually only guaranteed for the first year. The rate will then drop after the guaranteed period, and then be adjusted annually.

There may be penalties charged if you withdraw money during the penalty period. You may have to pay an 8% penalty if you withdraw money during the first year. After that, the penalty is usually decreased by 1% each year.

Annuities have tax-deferred features, so if you withdraw money before the age of 59 , you may have to pay a hefty 10% penalty to the IRS. The earnings on annuities are taxed as ordinary income by the IRS no matter how long you have invested.

Variable annuities

Variable annuities offer investors unique features, but they are quite complicated. They combine the elements of life insurance, mutual funds and tax-deferred savings planes. When you invest in a variable annuity, you select from a list of mutual funds to place your investment dollars. Your options may include balanced mutual funds, money market funds and several international funds.

Variable annuities have tax-deferred benefits, and they have income guarantees that you don’t find in other investments. For example, for a fee, your variable annuity will pay a death benefit.

Let’s look at how this works. You invest $100,000 in a variable annuity. In a few years, the value of the mutual funds in your account has fallen to $75,000. If this was a straight mutual fund, your heirs would only receive the $75,000. With this annuity, your beneficiaries are guaranteed the $100,000 if you pass away. If you have opted for the death benefits, the market value of the annuity may be as much as $125,000. Your beneficiaries would receive this amount.

Taxes are imposed in the same manner as for fixed-rate annuities. The earnings are taxed as ordinary income. You do not want to use the annuities inside of your 401(k) or IRA. These plans are built for accumulating money on a tax-deferred basis. You don’t want to pay the higher costs of an annuity when you can invest in a mutual fund that benefits you at less tax expense.

There are instances when variables are a good fit. If you’ve already reached the limit on your other retirement savings vehicles, you might look into a variable annuity. You aren’t limited in the amount you can invest in an annuity. Many allow you to convert your investment to an annual income stream, for a slight fee. The insurance company will guarantee that you will receive income payments for a certain period or for life.

CD-type annuities

A CD annuity is a fixed-rate annuity with a guaranteed rate that matches the penalty period. For example, you buy a five year CD annuity at 4%. If you hold the CD for five years then you will receive the 4% annually. If rates rise, you are already locked in at the lower rate.

Insurance companies developed CD annuities to help prevent insurers from making empty promises to continue to pay a high interest rate after the guaranteed period. Rates were falling, and customers were not getting what they expected. Customers began to pay a penalty to get out of the investment.

There are usually higher interest rates offered on CD annuities than on traditional CDs. The investment is tax-deferred, but if you cash out your five-year CD before the age of 59 , you will pay a 10% penalty on the gain to the IRS. Many contracts will allow you to take up to 10% of the balance or up to 100% of the interest annually without any insurance company penalties charged.

The surrender charges for a CD-type annuity are similar to those of fixed-rate annuities. There is no FDIC coverage on the investment. Some CD annuities have escape clauses in which the company penalty is waived if the customer allows the payments to be made over a five-year period or longer.

Tags: Amount Of Money, Annuity, Earnings, Fdic, Financial Strength, Fixed Annuities, Fixed Incomes, Fixed Rate Annuities, Guaranty Association, Insurance, Insurance Companies, Insurance Company, Insurance Guarantees, Interest Rates, Lifetime Stream, Long Term Capital, Long Term Capital Gain, Maturity Date, Retirement Savings, Risk

5 Practical Tips for All-Season Energy Savings

Replacing windows and doors is the fourth most common home-remodeling project and experts say it can dramatically reduce utility bills. Yet when it comes to choosing more energy-efficient options, consumers might be overwhelmed by the whirlwind of technology, terminology and options on the market today.

Homeowners need to be armed with accurate information in order to make the best choices about the many available options. That’s especially true as energy costs continue to climb. The Environmental Protection Agency’s Energy Star program estimates that the savings from replacing single-pane with Energy Star-qualified windows ranges from $125 to $340 a year for a typical home.

Since this is the time of year when many homeowners embark on remodeling projects, here are five basic tips for selecting the most energy efficient windows and doors for your home.

* Use Low-E glass. Select windows with Low-E glass, which controls the amount of heat transferred through the window and prevents heat loss in the winter. Jeld-Wen, a window and door manufacturer, now offers Low-E glass as a standard for its wood and clad wood windows and as an upgrade option for its vinyl windows.

* Update technology. Replace older single-pane windows with dual-pane units, which insulate the home from both cold and hot weather. Using both Low-E glass and insulating glass units will reduce home energy costs.

* Consider how they’re made. Choose doors with energy-efficient cores, sills and frames that provide a barrier to energy exchange. Dual-pane, Low-E glass helps ensure that they will be weathertight and energy efficient. For example, studies show that over time, steel doors made with polystyrene maintain energy ratings better than doors made with polyurethane.

* Understand the standards. Efficiency ratings are based on U-factor, which is the amount of heat flow through a product. The lower the U-factor, the more efficient the product. Efficiency also is measured by Solar Heat Gain Coefficient (SHGC), which indicates the ability to block heat generated by sunlight. The lower the SHGC, the better. Finally, experts evaluate Visible Light Transmission, which is the percentage of sunlight that is able to penetrate a window or door. Higher percentages mean more light will enter through the glass.

* Focus on efficiency, not bells and whistles. Manufacturers achieve efficiency in different ways. No matter what technology is employed, one of the easiest ways to identify the most energy-efficient products is to simply look for the Energy Star label.

Tags: Dual Pane, Efficiency Ratings, Energy Efficient Windows, Energy Exchange, Energy Ratings, Energy Star Program, Environmental Protection Agency, Glass Units, Home Energy Costs, Hot Weather, Insulating Glass, Low E Glass, Pane Windows, Program Estimates, Replacing Windows, Steel Doors, Technology Terminology, U Factor, Weathertight, Windows And Doors

An Analysis Of Journal Communications (JRN)

Journal Communications (JRN) is comprised of seven essentially separate businesses: The Milwaukee Sentinel, Community Newspapers, Television Stations, Radio Stations, Telecommunications, Printing Services, and Direct Marketing. The companys five reportable segments do not exactly match these seven businesses; however, I believe an investor should analyze JRN on the basis of these seven businesses and their constituent properties, rather than as a single going concern with five reportable business segments. Additional reasons for this belief will be outlined below. For now, it is sufficient to say that if Journal Communications were to divide into seven separate public companies, the combined market value of those companies would be substantially greater than JRNs current enterprise value. Simply put, the sum of the parts would be valued more highly than the whole.

Journal Communications has an enterprise value of just under $1 billion. Pre-tax owners earnings are probably around $125 million. So, JRN trades at eight times pre-tax owners earnings. Thats cheap.

Journals effective tax rate is 40%. That is an unusually high rate. Journals media properties would likely generate more after-tax income under different ownership. The difference would be material; but, for anyone other than a highly leveraged buyer, tax savings would not be a primary consideration. When evaluating Journal as a going concern, it is perfectly appropriate to treat the full 40% tax burden as a reality. These taxes reduce owners earnings by $50 million.

With after-tax owners earnings of $75 million and an enterprise value of $1 billion, Journals owners earnings yield is 7.5%. Remember, this is the after-tax yield. The pre-tax yield is 12.5%. When evaluating a company, its best to use the pre-tax yield for purposes of comparison. Last I checked, the 30 year Treasury bond was yielding 4.63%. So, looking at JRNs current earnings alone, the stock appears to offer a large margin of safety.

This is especially true if you consider the fact that earnings yields offer more protection against inflation than bond yields. They dont offer perfect protection. But, with stocks, there is at least the possibility that nominal cash flows will increase along with inflation. The cash flows generated by bonds are fixed in nominal terms, and therefore offer no protection against inflation.

When evaluating a long-term investment, such as a stock, I do not use a discount rate of less than 8%. This reduces JRNs margin of safety considerably. Instead of being the difference between 12.5% and 4.63%, Journals margin of safety is the difference between 12.5% and 8%. Is such a margin of safety sufficient? Maybe.

When evaluating a prospective investment, I first look at the risk of a catastrophic loss. What is the magnitude? And what is the probability? For my purposes, a catastrophic loss is defined as any permanent loss of principal. The risk that Ive overvalued a business is always greater than my risk of catastrophic loss, because I insist upon a margin of safety. A catastrophic loss is one that wipes out the entire margin of safety.

I can make a bad investment without suffering a catastrophic loss. For instance, most mutual funds are bad investments, because they underperform alternatives. However, mutual funds do not usually carry a high risk of catastrophic loss. In fact, they generally have a low risk of catastrophic loss, because they are highly correlated to the overall market.

Its easiest to understand this concept if you think of valuing companies as being a lot like writing insurance. Even if reality exceeds your expectations in nine out of every ten cases, a terrible misjudgment in the tenth case can cause you great harm. It isnt just how many mistake you make. Its also how big they are.

Some stocks, like Google (GOOG), trade at prices that allow for catastrophic losses of considerable magnitude. Other stocks, like Journal Communications, trade at prices that only allow for very small losses to principal. However, there is also the matter of probability. How likely is it that a Google shareholder will suffer a catastrophic loss? I dont know. Im not even willing to hazard a guess.

In the case of Journal Communications, I am willing to stick my neck out.

I believe an investment in JRN carries a very low risk to principal considerably less than, say, an investment in the S&P 500. Why? Because Journal Communications is trading at a very modest owners earnings multiple. But, that isnt the only reason. You shouldnt look at Journal solely from a going concern perspective. JRN mainly consists of readily saleable properties. The assets backing shares JRN are quite substantial:

Publishing

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Milwaukees only major daily and Sunday newspaper. The Sunday edition has the highest penetration rate (72%) of any Sunday newspaper in the top 50 U.S. markets. The daily edition has the third highest penetration rate (49%) of any daily newspaper in the top 50 U.S. markets. The paper has a daily circulation of 240,000 and a Sunday circulation of 425,000.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel also operates three websites. JSOnline.com and OnWisconsin.com generate advertising revenue. PackerInsider.com is a subscription based website.

Over the last three years, both daily circulation and Sunday circulation have decreased by about 1% annually. Full run advertising linage has also fallen by a similar amount; however, after accounting for increases in part run advertising and preprint pieces, it appears there has been no real decrease in total advertising.

The Journal Sentinel generates approximately $230 million in revenue. Advertising accounts for 80% of the Journal Sentinels revenue (the other 20% is circulation revenue). Advertising revenue is somewhat cyclical, and may currently be above normal levels.

Its difficult to value the Journal Sentinel, because JRN places the Journal Sentinel and its community newspapers under one reportable segment. Even if the numbers for the Journal Sentinel were broken out, I would have still have some difficulty coming up with an exact figure, because Im not an expert on newspapers.

Having said that, I cant see how the Journal Sentinel could be worth less than $250 million or more than $500 million. If I had to put a dollar figure on the Journal Sentinel, it would probably be in the 250 $300 million range. Id like to think this is a conservative estimate, but I dont know enough about newspapers to be sure. JRNs failure to break out the numbers for the Journal Sentinel apart from the community newspapers complicates the issue. However, I am quite confident the Journal Sentinel is worth no less than $250 million.

Its even more difficult to value JRNs Journal Community Publishing Group. It consists of 43 community newspapers, 41 shoppers, and 9 niche publications (automotive, boating, etc.). The group generates about $100 million in revenue. I cant value this group apart from the Journal Sentinel, because of the aforementioned lack of disclosure (combining the group with the Journal Sentinel for reporting purposes), my inability to find enough public information on community newspaper businesses, and other such factors.

The best I can do is offer an educated guess as to the combined value of JRNs publishing business. My best guess is that, taken together, the Journal Sentinel and the community newspapers are probably worth somewhere between $300 million and $500 million.

Broadcasting

Journal Communications owns 38 radio stations. The most important of which are: WTMJ-AM Milwaukee, KMXZ-FM Tucson, KFDI-FM Wichita, and KTTS FM Springfield (MO). All four of these stations are number one in their market. JRNs radio stations generate about $80 million in revenue.

Journal Communications owns seven television stations. Almost all of these stations are ranked as one of the top three in their market. Three are NBC affiliates, three are ABC affiliates, and one is a Fox affiliate. JRN owns two stations in Milwaukee, two in Idaho, one in California, one in Michigan, and one in Nevada. Journals TV stations generate about $90 million in revenue.

Again, its too hard for me to value JRNs TV stations and radio stations separately. Taken together, I believe theyre worth somewhere between $250 and $450 million.

Telecommunications

JRN owns a 3,800 mile network in the Great Lakes region. Norlight Telecommunications generates about $150 million in revenue. Im very hesitant to make any attempts to value this division, because I dont understand the telecom business well enough. Having said that, I dont see how it could be worth much less than $350 million.

Miscellaneous

I dont like the printing services and direct marketing business at all. I have no idea how to value them. They do have revenues though; so, they are probably worth something to someone. Revenues from these two businesses exceed $100 million, but they are not very profitable.

Real Estate

JRN owns a surprising amount of unencumbered real estate. For the most part, such properties are closely tied to one of JRNs operating businesses. As long as JRN continues as a going concern, much of the real estate could not be sold. Just to give you some idea of the extent of these properties, it appears JRN owns a little less than two million square feet much of which is in or around Milwaukee. I can not accurately value such real estate. As I said, much of it is closely tied to operating activities. However, buildings in urban areas can sometimes be converted to other uses.

It hardly matters though. Journal Communications is likely to remain a going concern for some time, and as long as it does, it is unlikely to dispose of such assets.

Valuation

So, what is JRN worth? Its hard to say. The current enterprise value is around $1 billion, which is clearly too low. My most conservative estimates for the publishing, broadcasting, and telecom businesses alone add up to $900 million. I think those are very conservative estimates. Using more reasonable estimates, I can not arrive at a value of less than $1.25 billion for JRNs constituent parts. This is true whether I perform an intrinsic value analysis on the entire company, or apply some sort of earnings, sales, or EBITDA multiple to each business separately.

Journal Communications is probably worth somewhere between $1.25 billion and $2 billion. Im quite pessimistic about the newspaper business; therefore, I would lean towards the $1.25 billion figure (which assumes slightly declining revenues). Any sort of revenue growth would dramatically change the valuation. If such growth will occur, JRN is extremely undervalued at these levels. However, Im not sure there will be any growth at all.

Journal Communications voting structure will probably discourage the best course of action: breaking up the company. JRN should spin off the community newspapers, the TV stations, the radio stations, and the telecom business. The printing services and direct marketing businesses should also be disposed of in some way. These are really very different businesses. There are few good reasons for keeping them together, and many good reasons for separating them.

Newspapers, radio, and TV all face different challenges. They need different managers who have complete control over capital allocation and who are compensated based on the performance of their business, not on the performance of a hodge-podge of various media properties. Breaking JRN up will make it easier to manage and will make it easier for current owners to dispose of their shares at more favorable prices should they wish to.

If these businesses traded as five or six different public companies, it is very unlikely their combined market cap would be less than $1 billion. It may not even be necessary for them to be publicly traded. There might be buyers for such properties, if JRNs properties were separated into common sense collections.

But, none of this is likely to happen. Employees control JRN (they maintain control through the ownership of shares with disproportionate voting rights). No one interested in shaking things up will take a stake in this company, because he would be unable to impose his will. I cant imagine management ever embarking on such a sweeping venture without some prodding from the outside.

JRN has almost no downside. Sadly, it doesnt seem to have a lot of upside either. There is a real danger investors will see their returns wither away as the time it takes to realize the value in Journal Communications proves costly. Time is the enemy of the investor who buys this kind of business at this kind of price.

Objectively, I have to admit JRN is undervalued. But, Im not sure its grossly undervalued and I am sure there are better long term investments.

Tags: 30 Year Treasury, 30 Year Treasury Bond, 50 Million, Business Segments, Community Newspapers, Direct Marketing, Earnings Yield, Effective Tax Rate, Eight Times, Enterprise Value, Going Concern, Journal Communications, Jrn Journal, Milwaukee Sentinel, Printing Services, Radio Stations, Stations Radio, Tax Burden, Television Stations, Year Treasury Bond

2006 Economy: How to Avoid Overextending Yourself

The U.S. is the worlds largest economy and is moving into its fifth year of expansion. The biggest risk is the housing market which is expected to slow this year and potentially drag the economy down with it. Many people are betting that the housing market will avoid a major crash but instead will plateau leaving prices stagnant. The resulting rise in interest rates could put a lot of families under financial stress.

A housing market that is not growing quickly turns into a buyers market. People will have a number of houses to choose from which will block any increasing value for current home owners. To most home owners this will not be a problem because they have conventional fixed-rate mortgages and only need to wait until the market improves. People who have unconventional 5-year arms and interest only loans may be seriously hurt; especially if interest rates rise.

I think one of the principal risks is whether or not home prices decline and the impact that that will have in terms of influencing the savings rate and personal consumption growth as we have already seen in the U.K. and Australia said David Rosenberg a U.S. economist at Merrill Lynch (Wolk, 2005).

A bigger problem is peoples personal savings rates. Because debt is so easy today and most families are at a maximum borrowing limit many people who will see a jump in their interest payments may begin to default. This default raises the interest rate even further due to increased risks associated with lending money. In the end many people will not have money to spend or save which could have serious consequences for the economy as a whole.

The best measure to avoid such pit falls is to put a larger sum down on your house during purchase which gives you a cushion to work with incase you need to sell your house quickly. The second measure is to avoid all credit card balances, home equity loans and charge cards. Finally, only engage in fixed-rate mortgages.

Tags: Charge Cards, Consumption Growth, Credit Card Balances, David Rosenberg, Economist, Financial Stress, Fixed Rate Mortgages, Home Equity Loans, Housing Market, Interest Only Loans, Interest Payments, Interest Rate, Interest Rates, Lending Money, Merrill Lynch, Personal Consumption, Personal Savings, Plateau, Principal Risks, Wolk